Visitors pose for a picture outside PMC Wagner Centre in NovemberRussian society is expected to face a “significant challenge” in the coming weeks as thousands of convicts are likely to be released, according to UK intelligence.
According to the Ministry of Defence, there’s about to be an influx of “violent offenders” set free if they’ve fought for the paramilitary organisation, the Wagner Group.
This mercenary group, led by a Russian oligarch with close ties to president Vladimir Putin – Yevgeny Prigozhin – has been credited with Russia’s few successes on the battlefield in Ukraine recently, and its ranks have been strengthened by recruiting inmates.
According to the UK’s MoD: “Wagner prisoner recruitment peaked in autumn 2022 with inmates being offered commutation of their sentences after six months of service.”
And Moscow is apparently expected to stick to its vow.
The MoD continued: “Although approximately half of the prisoners recruited have likely been killed or wounded, evidence from Russia suggests the group is following through on its promise to free survivors.
“The certificates issued to freed Wagner veterans claim to have been endorsed by the decree of President Putin.”
Not long after a public spat between Wagner and Putin over how much ammunition the Kremlin is giving to the private fighters (where Prigozhin accusing Russia’s defence minister of “treason”) Wagner is now “likely banned” from recruiting more inmates, the UK believes.
That means this mass exodus of inmates will “worsen” Wagner’s personnel issues after the death of so many soldiers on the battlefield.
In Tuesday’s update, MoD added: “The sudden influx of violent offenders with recent and often traumatic combat experience will likely present a significant challenge for Russia’s war-time society.”
Previously, UK officials claimed that Wagner were trying to recruit from schools and sports centres instead.
The Russian public is already facing pressure on their economy due to the war and sanctions imposed by Ukraine’s allies, and the partial mobilisation of reservists last September triggered protests and attempts to flee the country.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 21 March 2023.
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 21, 2023
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/3cNBwujMx7
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This claim comes after Putin made a surprise overnight trip to the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which the UK’s former permanent representative to Nato Lord Ricketts claimed was a show for a domestic audience.
He told Sky News on Monday: “It was a pretty empty propaganda exercise which won’t convince many people outside of Russia.”
Ricketts also suggested that it was a sign “he was capable of travelling” even after an international arrest warrant was issued for Putin last week.
The Russian president is also meeting his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping this week for a three- day conference in Moscow, an important move for Putin who has becoming increasingly isolated on the world stage over his war in Ukraine.
